Houston vs Georgia Southern
Houston visit Georgia Southern in Week 4. The model favors Houston by 17.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market land on the same side but not the same size. SP+ rates Houston 10.8 (34th) against Georgia Southern at -7.7 (102nd), an 18.5-point ratings gap that translates to a projected Houston margin of 16.1 and an 84% win probability. The consensus line sits at Georgia Southern +18.5 with an 87% implied number, and the ProphetX exchange pushes further to Houston -860, or 90%. Every layer of pricing favors Houston; the market simply asks for two to six points more cushion than the model does.
The unit ranks reinforce the gap on both sides of the ball: Houston grades 25th on offense and 47th on defense, while Georgia Southern sits 96th and 100th. Results add nuance to the projection. Houston has beaten Oregon State 33-20 and Southern 77-6, with its lone loss 26-28 at Texas Tech. Georgia Southern blanked Charleston Southern 31-0 but fell 7-22 at Clemson and 27-31 at Jacksonville State, a competitive road showing that argues against a runaway blowout even as the ratings favor Houston.
Season context frames the stakes: Houston projects to 7.1 wins with 7.8% Playoff and 0.3% title equity against a 0.8% market title price, while Georgia Southern projects 5.5 wins, 0.2% Playoff and no title path. The total of 56.5 fits two offenses ranked 25th and 96th.
Every pricing layer backs Houston, with the exchange at 90% demanding more margin than the model's 84% and 16.1-point projection.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Houston's win price; Georgia Southern's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Houston is favored, below it Georgia Southern is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Houston vs Georgia Southern game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Houston vs Georgia Southern market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Houston and Georgia Southern play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Georgia Southern.
Who is favored?
The model projects Houston by 17.4 (85% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →