Hawai'i vs Wyoming
Hawai'i visit Wyoming in Week 4. The model favors Hawai'i by 5.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ favors Hawai'i at 63 percent, projecting a 5.5-point margin in its favor off a -7.1 rating (rank 98) against Wyoming's -15 (rank 118). The consensus line sits at Wyoming +3 with a 44.5 total, implying 57 percent for Hawai'i, while the ProphetX exchange prices Hawaii at -144, or 59 percent. All three read the same direction, with the market slightly more cautious than the model: it gives Wyoming 43 percent versus the model's 37.
The unit ranks explain the tension. Wyoming's defense (#81) grades well ahead of Hawai'i's (#102), but its offense (#135) trails Hawai'i's (#93) and every other listed group. Season paths reinforce the tilt: Hawai'i projects 5.7 wins to Wyoming's 4.4, neither with a Playoff pulse at 0.3 and 0 percent. Results are mixed both ways, with Hawai'i 1-2 (a 29-19 win over New Mexico State) and Wyoming 1-2, its losses by 22 and 14.
Series history is even at 4-4, but the last meeting went to Hawai'i 27-7 in 2025. The numbers converge cleanly: model, consensus price and exchange all place Hawai'i in the 57 to 63 percent band, leaving little daylight for a contrarian read.
Model, market and exchange all lean Hawai'i, and the ratings gap plus series edge back the same side.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Hawai'i's win price; Wyoming's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Hawai'i is favored, below it Wyoming is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Hawai'i vs Wyoming game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Hawai'i vs Wyoming market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Hawai'i and Wyoming play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Wyoming.
Who is favored?
The model projects Hawai'i by 5.5 (63% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 4-4 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →