Hawai'i vs Stanford
Hawai'i visit Stanford in Week 1. The model favors Stanford by 2.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as close to a dead heat: Hawai'i rates -2.6 (83rd), Stanford -2.3 (79th), a gap of just 0.3 points. That produces a Stanford edge of 2.7 points and a 56% win probability, with Hawai'i at 44%. The market leans harder on the home side, pricing Stanford -4 with a 48.8 total and a 60% implied probability. The ProphetX exchange stretches it further, offering Stanford -176 (64%) against Hawai'i +166 (38%). Every step from model to consensus line to live exchange adds Stanford support the ratings themselves do not.
The unit splits explain the divergence. Stanford's profile is defense-led, ranking 56th on that side against a 94th-ranked offense, while Hawai'i pairs a 68th offense with a 91st defense. Series history is even at 1-1, and the last meeting in 2025 went to Hawai'i 23-20, a reminder the underdog price carries recent precedent. Season projections point the other way on trajectory: Hawai'i models to 7.5 wins and a 5.3% Playoff chance, Stanford to 4.5 wins and 0.5%, with neither given any title equity across the 10,000-run simulation.
A near coin-flip in the model that the market and exchange keep nudging toward Stanford, well past what the 0.3-point ratings gap justifies.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Hawai'i's win price; Stanford's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Hawai'i is favored, below it Stanford is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Hawai'i vs Stanford game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Hawai'i vs Stanford market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Hawai'i and Stanford play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Aug 29, 2026 at Stanford.
Who is favored?
The model projects Stanford by 2.1 (55% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →