Florida Atlantic vs North Texas
Florida Atlantic visit North Texas in Week 9. The model favors North Texas by 5.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates this close: North Texas at -0.6 (rank 72) against Florida Atlantic at -3.4 (rank 90), a projected North Texas margin of 5.2 points and a 62% win probability. The market disagrees sharply. The consensus line of -13.7 implies 80%, and the ProphetX exchange prices North Texas at -485 (83%) versus Florida Atlantic +465 (18%). That is a wide spread between a model that sees a one-score game and a market pricing a two-touchdown favorite.
The unit ranks explain the lean without justifying the full gap. North Texas owns the better offense (#24 to #44), but both defenses sit near the bottom, #119 and #123, pointing at the inflated total of 76.5. The series is tight, Florida Atlantic 2-4 against North Texas, with the 2024 meeting a 41-37 North Texas win. Results fit the shootout framing: North Texas edged Tulsa 45-44 and Navy 49-39, while Florida Atlantic survived Rice 51-49 and beat Navy 38-30.
Season projections keep both grounded, North Texas at 8 wins and 1.9% Playoff odds, Florida Atlantic at 7.2 wins and 0.3%, neither with title equity. The number to watch is the 15-point split between the 62% model probability and the 83% exchange price on North Texas.
Model sees a one-score North Texas edge while the market prices a two-touchdown favorite, and that gap is the whole trade.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Florida Atlantic's win price; North Texas's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Florida Atlantic is favored, below it North Texas is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Florida Atlantic vs North Texas game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Florida Atlantic vs North Texas market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Florida Atlantic and North Texas play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 29, 2026 at North Texas.
Who is favored?
The model projects North Texas by 5.2 (62% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
North Texas lead 4-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →