Florida Atlantic vs Florida
Florida Atlantic visit Florida in Week 1. The model favors Florida by 16.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch. Florida rates 15.2 (20th) against Florida Atlantic's -6.1 (91st), a 21.3-point ratings gap that projects to a Florida margin of 23.7 and a 92% win probability. The unit splits reinforce it: Florida's defense ranks 12th and its offense 40th, while Florida Atlantic brings the 58th offense and a 116th-ranked defense that the model expects to be the pressure point.
The market sits a notch more emphatic than the model. Consensus across two books posts Florida -26.5 with a 59.5 total, implying 95% and pricing the favorite 2.8 points steeper than the model's 23.7. ProphetX offers imply a 95/6 split, effectively matching that consensus. The daylight between the 92% model number and the 95% market number is the only real disagreement here, and it runs against Florida Atlantic.
History and the season file add little relief for the underdog. Florida leads the series 2-0, taking the last meeting 35-14 in 2021. Simulations peg Florida at 6.8 projected wins, 15.5% to reach the Playoff and 0.9% to win the title, against 1% market title odds. Florida Atlantic projects to 6.3 wins, 1.4% to make the Playoff and 0% to win it all.
Model and market both bury Florida Atlantic, with the market's 95% pricing Florida even steeper than SP+'s 23.7-point projection.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Florida Atlantic vs Florida game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Florida Atlantic vs Florida market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Florida Atlantic and Florida play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Florida.
Who is favored?
The model projects Florida by 16.4 (84% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Florida lead 2-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →