Colorado State vs Utah State
Colorado State visit Utah State in Week 9. The model favors Utah State by 1.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as close to a coin flip: Colorado State rates -8.4 (103rd) against Utah State's -9.2 (106th), a gap worth just 1.6 points and a 54-46 edge to the home side. The market disagrees sharply. Utah State's -6.5 line implies 65 percent, and ProphetX offers push that to 68 percent against Colorado State's +205 (33 percent). That is a wide model-market spread, with traders pricing Utah State roughly four points stronger than the ratings suggest.
The unit splits explain the tension. Colorado State pairs the 55th offense with the 131st defense, while Utah State inverts it: 124th offense, 67th defense. A 63.3 total leans toward Colorado State's scoring and away from Utah State's. Season simulations tilt the other way, projecting 4.6 wins for Colorado State and 3.6 for Utah State, neither with any Playoff or title equity.
Results show Colorado State at 3-4 with a 56-49 win over San Diego State and blowout losses at Texas State (27-66) and to Oregon State (26-56). Utah State sits 2-5, its wins by one and by 11. Colorado State took the last meeting 42-37 in 2024 but trails the series 4-6.
The model calls it a near coin flip at Utah State by 1.6, but the market prices the home side four points stronger.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Colorado State's win price; Utah State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Colorado State is favored, below it Utah State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Colorado State vs Utah State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Colorado State vs Utah State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Colorado State and Utah State play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at Utah State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Utah State by 1.6 (54% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Utah State lead 6-4 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →