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Matchup preview

Colorado vs Georgia Tech

Colorado visit Georgia Tech in Week 1. The model favors Georgia Tech by 8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
31%
69%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

The read
Model analysis · September 2 · refreshed weekly

SP+ installs Georgia Tech at 5.9 (rank 42) against Colorado at 0.7 (rank 66), a rating gap that translates to a projected 7.6-point margin and a 68% model win probability. The market sits a shade softer: Georgia Tech -6.5, total 51.3, with an implied 65%. The ProphetX exchange leans the other way, pricing Georgia Tech at -230 (70%) and Colorado at +215 (32%). So the model, the consensus line and the exchange all land Georgia Tech between 65% and 70%, a tight agreement that leaves little edge on the favorite.

The unit ranks tell a consistent story. Georgia Tech grades ahead on both sides, offense #54 to Colorado's #66 and defense #48 to #60. No matchup line reverses the overall tilt, which is why the projected margin (7.6) hugs the market number (6.5) rather than diverging from it. The one-point gap between model margin and spread is the only real disagreement on the board.

Series history is thin but pointed: Georgia Tech leads 1-0, having taken the 2025 meeting 27-20, a seven-point result that mirrors the current projection. Season simulations frame the tiers, Georgia Tech at 6.2 projected wins and 4.4% Playoff odds versus Colorado's 5.2 wins and 1.3%, with neither team a title factor (0.1% and 0%).

Model, consensus line and exchange all cluster Georgia Tech at 65-70%, and a projected 7.6 barely clears the -6.5.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 3 books
Spread
GT -6.5
Total (O/U)
53.2
Favorite
GT
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Colorado99%+68 ptsvsGeorgia Tech1%-68 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Colorado favoredGeorgia Tech favoredAug 19Aug 22Aug 25Aug 28Aug 31Sep 3Sep 4

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Colorado's win price; Georgia Tech's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Colorado is favored, below it Georgia Tech is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#72SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#60
#77FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#40
1344EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1595
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.8%
ColoradoGeorgia Techsolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Georgia Tech lead 1-0
20252025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
27-20
Georgia Tech
at Colorado
More Week 1 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Colorado vs Georgia Tech game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Colorado vs Georgia Tech market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Colorado and Georgia Tech play?

Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 4, 2026 at Georgia Tech.

Who is favored?

The model projects Georgia Tech by 8 (69% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Georgia Tech lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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