Coastal Carolina vs West Virginia
Coastal Carolina visit West Virginia in Week 1. The model favors West Virginia by 12.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a clear tier gap: West Virginia sits at -1.3 (72nd) against Coastal Carolina at -14.7 (117th), a 13.4-point separation that the model translates into a 15.8-point projected margin and an 83% Mountaineer win probability. The unit ranks reinforce the edge without making it lopsided: West Virginia grades 71st on offense and 75th on defense, while Coastal Carolina brings the 105th offense and a 120th-ranked defense, the weakest number on the board.
The market prices the same lean harder. The consensus line of West Virginia -21.2 implies a 90% home win, roughly five points and seven probability points beyond the model, and the ProphetX exchange stretches further to -1300, or 93%. That leaves Coastal Carolina at +1100, an 8% implied price against the model's 17%, the widest disagreement in the matchup: the numbers say the favorite is fair, but the spread and the total of 56.3 are pricing a more decisive West Virginia win than SP+ supports.
Season simulations show two similar profiles despite the Week 1 mismatch: Coastal Carolina projects 5.6 wins to West Virginia's 5.3, with Playoff odds of 0.3% and 0.8% and no title equity for either across 10,000 runs.
The model likes West Virginia by 15.8, but the market's -21.2 and the exchange's 93% price a bigger blowout than the ratings gap justifies.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Coastal Carolina's win price; West Virginia's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Coastal Carolina is favored, below it West Virginia is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Coastal Carolina vs West Virginia game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Coastal Carolina vs West Virginia market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Coastal Carolina and West Virginia play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at West Virginia.
Who is favored?
The model projects West Virginia by 12.8 (78% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →