Central Michigan vs New Mexico
Central Michigan visit New Mexico in Week 1. The model favors New Mexico by 22.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 15.1 points, rating New Mexico at 0 (rank 68) against Central Michigan at -15.1 (rank 119). That gap drives a projected New Mexico win by 17.5 and an 86% model win probability, leaving 14% for Central Michigan. The market is more cautious: the consensus line sits at New Mexico -10.2 with a 46.5 total, implying 73% for the home side, while the ProphetX exchange prices New Mexico at -390 (80%) and Central Michigan at +360 (22%). Model and price agree on direction and split on size, with roughly seven points of margin separating the two views.
Unit ranks reinforce the lean. New Mexico grades higher on both sides, offense #70 and defense #69, against Central Michigan's #122 offense and #96 defense, a mismatch across the board. Season simulations frame the context: New Mexico projects to 7.5 wins with a 5.9% Playoff chance, Central Michigan to 5.5 wins at 0.1%, and neither run finds a title path in 10,000 simulations.
The numbers favor New Mexico, and the model's 17.5-point margin reads richer than the market's 10.2 line.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Central Michigan's win price; New Mexico's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Central Michigan is favored, below it New Mexico is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Central Michigan vs New Mexico game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Central Michigan vs New Mexico market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Central Michigan and New Mexico play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 6, 2026 at New Mexico.
Who is favored?
The model projects New Mexico by 22.1 (91% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →