California vs NC State
California visit NC State in Week 9. The model favors NC State by 9.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 7.3 points, rating NC State at -0.9 (rank 74) over California at -8.2 (rank 101), and projects the Wolfpack by 9.7 with a 72% win probability. The market is a touch more cautious: NC State -7 with a 66% implied win probability and a total of 56.8. That gap, model margin 9.7 against a line of 7, marks the only real disagreement, and it leans the same direction both sides already favor.
The unit splits explain the edge. NC State's offense ranks #46 against a California defense at #103, while both defenses sit near the bottom (Wolfpack #107, Bears #103), consistent with the inflated 56.8 total. California's offense (#101) faces the lone side NC State can lean on. The series is thin: California is 0-1, with the 2024 meeting a 24-23 NC State win.
Results track the ratings. California is uneven, with wins over Syracuse, Wagner and Virginia Tech against lopsided losses to Wake Forest (7-41) and SMU (20-59). NC State is 3-4, beating Louisville 31-28 and App State 41-31 but losing to Wake Forest 14-38 and falling 31-28 at Stanford. Projected win totals (NC State 5.4, California 4.5) frame a tight ACC matchup neither simulation treats as a contender, with California at 4.5 wins and both at 0% title odds.
Model and market both back NC State, with SP+ pricing the Wolfpack a shade higher than the -7 consensus.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as California's win price; NC State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line California is favored, below it NC State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the California vs NC State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the California vs NC State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do California and NC State play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at NC State.
Who is favored?
The model projects NC State by 9.7 (72% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
NC State lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →