Ball State vs Kent State
Ball State visit Kent State in Week 4. The model favors Kent State by 1.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as close to a coin flip: Ball State rates -24.3 (136th), Kent State -24.8 (137th), a half-point separation that yields a projected Kent State margin of 1.9 and a 55 percent home win probability. The unit ranks are equally packed, with all four sitting between 132 and 135. The market pushes the home side harder: the consensus line of Kent State -3.2 implies 58 percent, and ProphetX offers Kent State at -158 (61 percent) against Ball State +148 (40 percent). That gap between the model's 45 percent and the exchange's 40 percent on Ball State is where the daylight sits.
History leans the other way. Ball State holds the series 5-1 and took the last meeting in 2025, 17-13. Results this season are near mirror images: each lost badly at a Power opponent, each beat an FCS visitor (Ball State 41-17 over Stony Brook, Kent State 36-15 over Wofford), and both were routed at Ohio State. Season sims split the projections almost evenly at 4.2 and 4.1 wins, with no postseason equity on either side.
Two bottom-140 teams separated by half a rating point, with the market pricing Kent State steeper than the model or the series warrants.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Ball State's win price; Kent State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Ball State is favored, below it Kent State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Ball State vs Kent State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Ball State vs Kent State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Ball State and Kent State play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Kent State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Kent State by 1.9 (55% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Ball State lead 5-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →