Akron vs Kent State
Akron visit Kent State in Week 8. The model favors Kent State by 6.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market sit on the same number. SP+ separates these teams by 0.6 points (Akron -22.9, rank 133; Kent State -22.3, rank 132) and projects Kent State by 3, converting to a 57 percent edge. The consensus line of Kent State -3 and the implied 57/43 split line up exactly. The ProphetX exchange nudges slightly further, pricing Kent State at -144 (59 percent) against Akron at +134 (43 percent), a marginal lean past the model.
The unit ranks explain the near-dead-heat. Akron grades #130 on offense and #130 on defense; Kent State is #137 on offense but #120 on defense, the one edge separating two of the lowest-rated teams in the field. Season form is bleak on both sides: Akron is 1-6 with its win over Robert Morris 45-10, Kent State 2-5 with wins over Wofford and Ball State. Simulations project 2.5 wins for Akron and 4.1 for Kent State, with 0 percent Playoff or title odds for each.
The series is level at 6-6, and Kent State took the last meeting 42-35 in 2025. With a total of 46.3, the market expects a tight, modest-scoring game, consistent with the 3-point projection.
Model and market agree on Kent State by 3 at 57 percent; the exchange leans a touch harder at 59 percent.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Akron's win price; Kent State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Akron is favored, below it Kent State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Akron vs Kent State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Akron vs Kent State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Akron and Kent State play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at Kent State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Kent State by 6.2 (65% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 6-6 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →