Air Force vs Wyoming
Air Force visit Wyoming in Week 8. The model favors Air Force by 4.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams clearly: Air Force sits at 1.5 (rank 66) against Wyoming at -9.3 (rank 110), a gap that drives a projected 8.4-point Air Force margin and a 69% model win probability. The market is more cautious, pricing Wyoming at +5.3 and implying 37%, with the ProphetX exchange offering Wyoming at +180 (36%) and Air Force at -188 (65%). That three-to-six-point spread between the model number and the consensus line is the central disagreement to read here.
The unit ranks explain the lean. Air Force pairs the 59th offense with the 75th defense, while Wyoming carries the 126th offense and a respectable 65th defense. Wyoming's edge is defensive, which fits a total set at 45.5, but the offensive rank gap is the widest single margin in the matchup and tilts SP+ toward the visitor. Season simulations echo it: Air Force projects to 8.6 wins against Wyoming's 6.1, with neither team given Playoff or title equity.
The series is tight at 5-6, and Air Force took the 2025 meeting 24-21. Form favors the visitor: Air Force is 5-1 with wins over Nevada, Navy, Northern Illinois and UNLV, its lone loss 32-38 to North Dakota State. Wyoming is 4-3, having beaten Northern Illinois 41-23 but losing 0-28 at the same North Dakota State and 13-35 at Colorado State.
The model backs Air Force harder than the market, with the SP+ margin and a lopsided offensive-rank gap sitting well clear of a +5.3 line.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Air Force's win price; Wyoming's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Air Force is favored, below it Wyoming is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Air Force vs Wyoming game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Air Force vs Wyoming market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Air Force and Wyoming play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at Wyoming.
Who is favored?
The model projects Air Force by 4.1 (60% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Wyoming lead 6-5 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →