The widest fade on the college football national-title market is Notre Dame: its best price of 13c on Polymarket sits about 2.1 points above the model's 10.9% fair value. Ohio State (13c on Kalshi vs 11.4% fair) and Texas (11c on Polymarket vs 9.5%) follow. The exception at the top of the board is Oregon, which trades at 11c on an 11% fair value, a price the model reads as honest.
Which title contracts does the model fade hardest?
Ranked by the gap between best price and fair value, the fades cluster at the top of the board. Notre Dame leads at roughly 2.1 points rich, followed by Ohio State near 1.6 and Texas near 1.5. Georgia (10c vs 8.6% fair) and Indiana (10c vs 8.9%) each carry gaps above a point.
These are not exotic longshots; they are consensus contenders where the market's best available ask has drifted above where the model's de-vigged fair value lands. The pattern is consistent: the more crowded the contender, the more the ask tends to sit over model value.
How wide are the gaps between price and fair value?
The two figures below sit side by side. The first is the best available price in cents; the second is the model's fair value in percent. Reading them together isolates where the ask has run ahead of the model.
Notre Dame and Ohio State both list at 13c, but their fair values (10.9% and 11.4%) differ, so Notre Dame carries the larger fade. Texas at 11c and Georgia and Indiana at 10c each show smaller but real gaps. Oregon's 11c against 11% is the control case: price and model agree.
Where is the title market priced honestly?
Oregon is the cleanest print in the top tier. At 11c on an 11% fair value, the market and the model line up, so there is nothing for the model to fade. Texas A&M sits in the same category further down, with a 2c best price on a 2% fair value.
That contrast matters. A fade is only meaningful against a benchmark, and Oregon shows the market can and does price a contender at model value. When most of the field trades rich and one contender does not, the honest print is the reference point, not the outlier.
Why does every title price sit above fair value?
Even the cheapest venue lists each contender at or above its fair value, because the best price is an ask and an ask clears above the de-vigged consensus by construction. That is the price floor: fair value is the midpoint after removing the market's overround, while the tradable number is what a counterparty will actually take.
So the exercise is not hunting for prices below fair value on the title board; those do not exist here. It is ranking how far each ask has drifted above model value. On that measure, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Texas screen richest, and Oregon screens fairest.
Venue still matters for execution. Ohio State's best 13c is on Kalshi and Notre Dame's best 13c is on Polymarket, so the cheapest print for a given team is not always on the same exchange.
How to read these fades
The model flags gaps; it does not issue instructions, and both the price and the fair value can be wrong. A 1 to 2 point gap on a contender is a signal about where the ask has run ahead of consensus, not a verdict on any outcome. Prices move with liquidity and news, and today's fade can close by the next repricing.
For traders comparing venues, promo access is straightforward: Kalshi runs code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500) and Polymarket runs code TGSWC (deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus). The point of the board above is the read, not the incentive: the market is charging over model value across most of the title tier, and only Oregon is priced clean.
