Ohio State enters the 2026 national title market with a model fair value of 11.1% and a best price of 13c on Kalshi, ranking second on the board behind Oregon at 11.6%. The takeaway up front: the market prices the Buckeyes a touch above where the model sits, so the current 13c contract reads modestly rich rather than as a value entry.
What is Ohio State's 2026 title price and fair value?
The model's fair value for Ohio State is 11.1%, tied with Notre Dame and a half point under Oregon's board-leading 11.6%. That places three teams inside a narrow half-point band at the top, a top-heavy structure typical of the current title market.
The cheapest available Ohio State contract is 13c on Kalshi. Converting the price to an implied probability, 13c sits roughly 1.9 points above the 11.1% fair value. That premium is the market's markup over the model, and it is the number that matters when weighing an entry.
The gap is not extreme, but the direction is clear: price tops fair value. The model does not fade Ohio State's standing among the contenders; it fades the specific level at which the contract currently trades.
Where is the cheapest venue to trade Ohio State?
Kalshi holds the best price on Ohio State at 13c, and the pattern repeats across the board's favorites. Oregon shows cheapest at 12c on Kalshi, Notre Dame at 13c on Kalshi and Indiana at 11c on Kalshi, so the venue owns the front of the title market.
For traders comparing venues, that concentration matters: the cheapest entry on the top Big Ten and national contenders sits in one place. Kalshi's promo code FADE offers up to $500 on qualifying activity; Polymarket's TGSWC and ProphetX's VAULT cover the tail of the board where those venues price sharper.
What about Big Ten conference odds?
A separate conference-title market is not part of this title-price read, so no Big Ten conference number is cited here. The title board still offers a usable proxy for conference standing: Ohio State at 11.1%, Oregon at 11.6% and Indiana at 9.8% are the three Big Ten teams carrying the highest title equity.
That ordering frames the conference picture without inventing a figure. Oregon leads the Big Ten trio by a half point over Ohio State, and Indiana trails both by more than a point. The rest of the Big Ten field does not clear the threshold to register on the title board at all.
Read through title equity, the Big Ten is top-heavy: two teams at or near the board lead and a clear third, then a drop. Ohio State sits firmly in that leading pair on model fair value.
Where the model stands on Ohio State
The model's position is straightforward. Ohio State belongs in the top tier of the 2026 title market at 11.1% fair value, but the 13c Kalshi price carries a premium of roughly 1.9 points over that mark. Price above fair value is a fade signal on the contract, not a verdict on the team.
Compared with the board, the Buckeyes screen fairly rather than cheaply: Oregon at 11.6% fair value against a 12c price shows a tighter premium at the very top, while several tail names on Polymarket trade closer to model. Ohio State's markup is middling for a favorite.
The reads here come from prices and a model, and both can be wrong; nothing above is financial advice. The clean summary: Ohio State is a genuine title contender by fair value, and the current 13c level asks a small premium to hold it.
