Redshirt
Analysis

Kalshi vs Polymarket: The CFB Price Split by Venue

Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football is a near split: Kalshi holds the top title favorites, Polymarket carries the tail, and shopping both is the edge.

By The Model Desk · 2026-08-30
Analysis
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Key takeaways
  • Neither venue is cheaper across the board: Kalshi holds the best price on Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana and Miami, while Polymarket holds most of the rest.
  • Ohio State's best national-title price is 13c on Kalshi against an 11.4% model fair value, the largest favorite on the board.
  • Notre Dame's best price is 13c on Polymarket versus an 11.2% fair value, effectively level with Ohio State.
  • Texas A&M is the rare contract trading below fair value: 2c on Polymarket against a 2.5% model number.
  • The consensus fair value is built by de-vigging prices across Kalshi, Polymarket and ProphetX, so the cheapest venue changes team by team.

Kalshi versus Polymarket for college football does not have a single winner. Across the 12-team national title board, the best posted price splits almost evenly: Kalshi is cheapest on the top favorites (Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana and Miami), while Polymarket holds the better price on most of the rest (Notre Dame, Texas, Georgia, LSU, Alabama and Texas A&M). The better venue is a team-by-team question, not a platform-wide verdict.

Which venue has better CFB title prices?

The market prices Ohio State as the clear favorite at a fair value of 11.4%, with the cheapest contract at 13c on Kalshi. Notre Dame sits right behind at 11.2% fair value, and its best price of 13c comes from Polymarket. Those two lines, level on the model but sourced from different venues, capture the whole story: the price leadership flips depending on which team is in question.

Counting the board, Kalshi carries the best price on more of the heavy favorites, while Polymarket carries more of the total names once the tail is included. That is a structural split, not a rounding artifact. Each venue runs its own order book, and the de-vigged consensus fair value is drawn from Kalshi, Polymarket and ProphetX combined, so no single platform sets the reference number.

Best national title price by cheapest venue
Ohio State (Kalshi)13c
Notre Dame (Poly)13c
Oregon (Kalshi)11c
Texas (Poly)11c
Indiana (Kalshi)10c
Georgia (Poly)10c
Miami (Kalshi)8c
LSU (Poly)6c

Where Kalshi wins the price

Kalshi holds the cheaper number on the front of the board. Oregon prices at 11c against a 10.6% fair value, Indiana at 10c against 8.8%, and Miami at 8c against 7.5%. Ohio State at 13c anchors the group as the shortest contract on offer.

The pattern is that Kalshi tends to lead where liquidity and attention concentrate, which is the cluster of teams the market treats as genuine contenders. For a trader building exposure to the favorites, Kalshi is the first book to check. The FADE code adds a trading bonus on Kalshi, but the posted price is what matters when comparing venues.

Where Polymarket wins the price

Polymarket carries the better price deeper into the board. Texas is 11c against a 10.1% fair value, Georgia 10c against 8.7%, and LSU 6c against 5.4%. Further out, Alabama sits at 3c and Texas A&M at 2c.

Texas A&M is the one contract on this list trading below the model: 2c against a 2.5% fair value, a small gap but the only case where the posted price undercuts the de-vigged number rather than sitting above it. For traders shopping the tail, Polymarket is the more frequent home of the cheapest line, and the TGSWC code applies there.

Polymarket best price vs model fair value
Texas price 11c11%
Texas fair value10.1%
Georgia price 10c10%
Georgia fair value8.7%
Texas A&M price 2c2%
Texas A&M fair value2.5%

Why the better price depends on the team

Most best prices still sit above fair value, which is the vig floor at work: Ohio State's 13c against 11.4% and Notre Dame's 13c against 11.2% both carry a premium over the model. That premium is what a buyer pays to hold the contract, and it varies by venue and by team.

The practical read is that there is no shortcut to one platform. Because the cheapest price flips between Kalshi and Polymarket across the board, the only durable edge is checking both books before taking a position. A venue that leads on the favorites can trail on the tail, and the reverse holds just as often.

Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice. What the data supports is narrow and useful: the better CFB price is a per-team answer, and line-shopping across Kalshi and Polymarket is the mechanism that captures it.

TeamsOhio StOregonNotre DameTexasGeorgiaTexas A&M
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Frequently asked questions

Which is better for college football prices, Kalshi or Polymarket?

Neither wins outright. Kalshi posts the best national-title price on the top favorites like Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana and Miami, while Polymarket is cheapest on Notre Dame, Texas, Georgia, LSU, Alabama and Texas A&M. The better price is team-specific.

Where is the cheapest place to trade Ohio State futures?

Ohio State's best national-title price is 13c on Kalshi, against a consensus fair value of 11.4%. That is the shortest contract on the board.

Is any CFB title contract trading below its fair value?

Texas A&M stands out: its best price is 2c on Polymarket versus a 2.5% model fair value, meaning the market price sits under the de-vigged number.

Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same team?

Each venue has its own order book, liquidity and vig. That splits the cheapest price by team, which is why a de-vigged consensus fair value is drawn from Kalshi, Polymarket and ProphetX together.

Do promo codes change which venue has better prices?

No. Codes such as Kalshi FADE or Polymarket TGSWC add a trading bonus but do not alter the posted contract price. The best price still has to be compared venue by venue.

About the author
The Model Desk

The Redshirt Analytics modeling team prices every college football futures contract and tracks the gaps between fair value and live market prices on Kalshi, Polymarket and ProphetX.