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Analysis

Kalshi or Polymarket: Cheapest CFB Price by Team

Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football: the cheapest national-title price splits by team, with Kalshi owning the mid-board and Polymarket the top seed and tail.

By The Model Desk · 2026-08-06
Analysis
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Key takeaways
  • Neither venue wins outright: Kalshi posts the cheapest price on Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Indiana and LSU; Polymarket leads on Notre Dame, Texas, Miami, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma.
  • Notre Dame's cheapest national-title contract sits at 13c on Polymarket against a model fair value of 11.2%.
  • Kalshi owns the mid-board, pricing Ohio State at 12c, Oregon at 11c, Georgia at 10c and Indiana at 9c.
  • Polymarket controls the tail, listing Alabama and Oklahoma at 2c and Texas A&M at 3c.
  • Best execution in CFB futures is a per-team decision, not a single-venue call.

There is no single winner. Across the national-title board, Kalshi posts the cheapest price on Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Indiana and LSU, while Polymarket owns the cheapest number on Notre Dame, Texas, Miami, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma. The correct venue depends on the team, not the logo.

The takeaway for anyone comparing the two exchanges: check per contract. A trader who defaults to one venue for the whole board is leaving price on the table on roughly half of it.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: which has the better CFB prices?

The split runs down the middle. Of the twelve teams on the priced title board, Kalshi holds the best price on five and Polymarket on six (the twelfth, a Big 12 contract, falls outside the tracked team set). That is close to a coin flip, which is the point: consensus fair value is built by de-vigging both venues, so neither can stay systematically cheaper for long.

Where the venues diverge is by tier. Kalshi clusters its edge in the middle of the board, the 9c to 12c range where Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia and Indiana trade. Polymarket is sharpest at the extremes: the Notre Dame favorite up top and the 2c-to-3c tail below.

That structure matters more than the headline count. A trader focused on mid-board contenders will find Kalshi cheaper more often; one hunting longshots or the top seed will lean Polymarket.

Where Kalshi posts the cheapest CFB title price

Kalshi's strength is the contender block. Ohio State is 12c against a fair value of 11.1%, Oregon 11c against 10.3%, Georgia 10c against 9.1%, and Indiana 9c against 8.5%. LSU rounds out the group at 5c against 4.7%.

In each case the Kalshi price sits within about a point of the model's fair value, which is what best execution looks like: the cheapest venue and the smallest gap to fair tend to travel together. Kalshi's FADE promo (trade $25, get up to $500) applies for traders opening there.

Where Polymarket wins on price

Polymarket takes the top and the bottom. Notre Dame, the board's most expensive contract, is cheapest at 13c on Polymarket, though that still prints above the 11.2% fair value. Texas (11c vs 9.6%) and Miami (8c vs 6.8%) also clear cheapest there.

The tail is where Polymarket's edge is cleanest: Texas A&M at 3c, Alabama at 2c and Oklahoma at 2c. Thin-priced longshots are where a single cent of execution is the largest share of the ticket, so venue choice carries the most weight here. Polymarket's TGSWC promo (deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus) is the entry offer on that side.

Cheapest price by team

The chart below plots the cheapest available national-title price for each team, color-blind to venue. Read alongside the split above, it shows how the board stacks from the Notre Dame favorite down to the 2c longshots.

Price is not the whole trade. Several of the cheapest numbers, Notre Dame and Texas among them, still sit above the model's fair value, meaning the cheapest venue is not the same as a contract the model calls cheap. Prices and the model can both be wrong; this is analysis, not advice.

Cheapest national-title price by team
Notre Dame13c
Ohio State12c
Oregon11c
Texas11c
Georgia10c
Indiana9c
Miami8c
LSU5c

How to read the split

The practical rule: match the venue to the tier. Contenders in the 9c-to-12c band price cheaper on Kalshi more often; the favorite and the sub-3c tail price cheaper on Polymarket. Anyone running the full board benefits from holding accounts on both and routing each contract to its cheaper side.

Because consensus fair value blends both venues, the cheaper price also tends to sit closer to fair value, which keeps the effective cost of a position down. That is the argument for treating best execution as a per-team question rather than picking one exchange and living with it.

TeamsNotre DameOhio StOregonGeorgiaMiamiAlabama
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Frequently asked questions

Is Kalshi or Polymarket cheaper for college football futures?

Neither is uniformly cheaper. Kalshi posts the best price on Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Indiana and LSU, while Polymarket leads on Notre Dame, Texas, Miami, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma. The cheapest venue is a per-team check, not a blanket choice.

Where is the cheapest Notre Dame national title price?

Polymarket, at 13c, against a model fair value of 11.2%. That price sits above fair value, so the market is paying up for the board's top seed.

Which venue has better prices on the CFB longshots?

Polymarket. It prices Alabama and Oklahoma at 2c and Texas A&M at 3c, giving it the edge at the bottom of the title board.

How is the consensus fair value calculated across venues?

Prices from Kalshi and Polymarket are de-vigged and blended into a single consensus fair value, then compared against the cheapest available price on each contract.

About the author
The Model Desk

The Redshirt Analytics modeling team prices every college football futures contract and tracks the gaps between fair value and live market prices on Kalshi, Polymarket and ProphetX.