The biggest Heisman edges surface where a team's title contract disagrees most with the model, and those gaps currently sit with Notre Dame, Texas and Miami on the rich side and Alabama on the cheap side. Notre Dame's title contract trades at 13c against an 11.3% model fair value, the widest premium on the board; Alabama is the only contract priced under the model, at 2c versus a 2.5% fair value.
Everything else in the top tier trades at a modest markup to model fair value, which is the market's vig showing through. Reading those markups in order is the fastest way to see where the market is most aggressive and where it is closest to the model.
Why judge Heisman edges through title equity?
A Heisman case rarely detaches from whether the team is contending, so the model reads award value as downstream of title equity. The current market snapshot covers title contracts, which makes those prices the cleanest proxy for how much winning equity the market assigns each roster.
The fair values here are a de-vigged consensus built across Kalshi and Polymarket, then compared against the best available price at either venue. Where the best price sits well above fair value, the market is paying a premium the model does not endorse. Where it sits at or below fair value, the model sees a cheaper entry than the crowd.
Where is the market paying up?
Notre Dame leads the premium list: a 13c best price on Polymarket against 11.3% fair value. Texas is close behind, at 11c on Polymarket versus 9.6%, and Miami trades 8c on Polymarket against 6.8%. Those are the three widest gaps between price and model on the board.
Ohio State (12c vs 11.1%) and Georgia (10c vs 9.1%) carry thinner markups, closer to the standard vig than a genuine disagreement. For award purposes, the richest title premiums flag the rosters the market is most confident about, which is also where standalone Heisman pricing tends to run hottest.
Where does price sit under the model?
Alabama is the standout in the other direction. Its best title price is 2c on Polymarket against a 2.5% model fair value, the only contract on the board where price sits below the model rather than above it. Oklahoma is effectively at par, 2c versus 2.1%, so Alabama is the cleaner example of a discount.
That matters for award reads because a roster the market is underpricing at the team level is the kind of spot where an in-season Heisman narrative can move quickly. The model's edge is small in absolute terms, but the direction of the gap is the point: the crowd is not paying full model value for Alabama.
How to read the edges as a trader
The workflow is straightforward: rank contracts by the gap between best price and model fair value, then check which venue lists the cheaper price. Notre Dame, Texas and Miami currently show the richest premiums, so the model treats them as spots to fade rather than chase; Alabama is the lone discount. Kalshi (promo FADE, trade $25 get up to $500) and Polymarket (promo TGSWC, deposit $20 get a $50 trading bonus) are the venues behind these prices.
None of this is a guarantee. Prices and the model can both be wrong, snapshots age quickly, and a de-vigged consensus is an estimate, not a settled probability. The figures above are a read on relative value across title contracts, not financial advice.
