Georgia's 2026 national title fair value is 8%, and the cheapest contract trades at 9c on Kalshi. That is seventh on the overall board and third among SEC teams, a strong-but-not-dominant read that puts the Bulldogs a notch below the market's clear favorites.
What is Georgia's 2026 title fair value?
The model's fair value for Georgia is 8%, translating to implied title odds of roughly one-in-twelve. The best available price is 9c on Kalshi, about one cent above fair. On a 100-contract board that gap is thin: the price is close to efficient rather than a discount the model wants to press.
For context, the top of the board runs Ohio State at 11.1% fair value, Notre Dame at 10.3% and Oregon at 10%. Georgia sits in the next cluster with Indiana (9.2%), LSU (8.1%) and Miami (7.7%), a tightly packed group where small pricing differences matter more than headline ordering.
Where does Georgia rank in the SEC title tier?
Within the SEC, the national title board sorts the conference into two distinct tiers. Texas leads at 9.3% fair value, LSU follows at 8.1%, and Georgia is third at 8%. The separation between LSU and Georgia is a single tenth of a point, so the two are effectively priced as coin-flip peers for second in the conference hierarchy.
Below that top three, the drop is steep. Alabama sits at 2.4%, Texas A&M at 2% and Oklahoma at 2%. The market is expressing high conviction that the SEC's title equity is concentrated in three programs, with the rest of the conference treated as longer-odds tail risk.
Is there a Georgia conference-odds edge?
No standalone SEC conference-title contract is included in the current data set, so the cleanest read on Georgia's conference standing comes from the national title board itself. On that board the Bulldogs are the SEC's third-most-likely champion, which implies the market sees a genuine three-way race at the top of the conference rather than a single runaway favorite.
That framing matters for how the price should be read. When national title equity is spread across Texas, LSU and Georgia, each team's individual number understates how often it reaches the conference title game or the playoff. The 8% figure is a championship probability, not a measure of how competitive Georgia is week to week.
Where does the value sit for traders?
The best Georgia price is 9c on Kalshi, which is also where the broader title favorites have been trading cheapest. Against an 8% fair value, that 9c ask carries a small premium: the contract is priced slightly rich, so the model does not flag Georgia as an underpriced entry the way it might a team trading below fair.
Traders comparing venues should note Kalshi's edge on favorites here; the cheapest SEC longshots, by contrast, surface on Polymarket at 2c to 3c. For Georgia specifically, the read is discipline over aggression: the market and model largely agree, and the one-cent overpay is the cost of a top-tier SEC contract on the most liquid venue. Kalshi's FADE code (up to $500 after trading $25) is the relevant sign-up for that price.
