The model's national-title board doubles as a conference-strength map, and it points three ways: Miami (9.1% fair value, 12c on Kalshi) is the lone ACC team priced on the board, Oregon (9.1%, 12c) heads a tight Big Ten trio, and Texas (8.3%, 11c) fronts the deepest field, the SEC. No conference market is quoted directly here, so these national-title fair values serve as a proxy for league standing rather than a settled conference price.
How can national-title prices read conference-title value?
A conference crown is not priced in isolation on this board; it sits inside each team's national-title fair value as one step on the path to the final. That makes the figures a ranking tool: the higher a team's title probability, the stronger the model rates its odds of surviving its league.
The read is directional, not a direct quote. Two teams in the same conference cannot both win it, so these numbers rank contenders rather than sum to a league market. Treated that way, the board still sorts each conference cleanly by model strength.
Why does Miami own the ACC on the model's board?
Miami is the only ACC team the model places on the national-title board at all, at 9.1% fair value with a best price of 12c on Kalshi. That absence of a second ACC name is the signal: the model sees no priced challenger to Miami inside its own conference.
Against the field, Miami's 9.1% ties Oregon for the second-highest fair value on the board. For a league with only one representative here, that concentration reads as conviction rather than a crowded race.
Is the Big Ten a three-way cluster?
The Big Ten stacks three teams inside a narrow band. Oregon tops it at 9.1% fair value (12c on Kalshi), with Ohio State and Indiana tied just behind at 6.7% (9c each). The gap from top to third is 2.4 points of fair value, tight enough that the model treats the league as contested.
Indiana sharing Ohio State's exact 6.7% mark is the notable line. The model gives the two identical national-title fair value, so it sees no separation between them on the road through the Big Ten.
Why is the SEC the deepest field?
The SEC places six teams on the board, more than any other conference: Texas at 8.3%, Georgia at 5.2%, LSU at 4.4%, Texas A&M at 2.8%, and Oklahoma and Ole Miss at 2% each. Breadth, not a single dominant price, defines the league here.
Texas leads at 8.3% (11c on Kalshi), but the drop to Georgia at 5.2% and the long tail behind it means the model spreads its probability across a wide SEC field. That depth cuts both ways: more paths to the crown, but no single team the model backs as a runaway.
Traders comparing venues will note every SEC name lists its best price on Kalshi, where the FADE code applies. The cheapest of them, Oklahoma and Ole Miss, sit at 3c.
Where does the value sit?
By conference, the model's cleanest read is Miami: sole ACC name on the board and tied for the second-highest fair value overall. The Big Ten offers a genuine three-way contest between Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana, while the SEC is the deepest but least concentrated field.
One caveat frames all of it: Notre Dame's 8.3% fair value has no conference path, so a strong national-title team drops out of any league read entirely. Prices and the model can both be wrong, and these figures rank conferences rather than settle a conference market.
