The model sees the richest conference-title value in the Big Ten and SEC. Ohio State (11.4% national-title fair value) and Oregon (10.3%) headline the Big Ten, while Texas (9.6%) and Georgia (9.1%) top the SEC. Those two conferences are the only ones fielding multiple contenders inside the national-title top eight.
Conference-title contracts are not quoted directly in this dataset, so national-title fair value serves as the cleanest proxy for where each conference race stands: a team's title equity already prices in its strength, schedule and playoff path, and the top of that equity ladder maps closely to the top of each conference board.
Which conference has the deepest title market?
The Big Ten runs deepest. Ohio State at 11.4%, Oregon at 10.3% and Indiana at 8.4% give the conference three teams the model rates as serious national contenders, and by extension three live conference-title candidates. No other conference stacks that many names near the top.
The SEC is the closest rival for depth, led by Texas (9.6%) and Georgia (9.1%), then a gap down to LSU at 5%. Texas A&M (2.8%), Alabama (2.5%) and Oklahoma (2.1%) fill out the tail, which reads as a two-team front with a long field behind it.
The chart below ranks the conference leaders by the model's national-title fair value, the same ordering that governs where value sits on each conference board.
Where does the Big Ten title race sit?
Ohio State prices as the model's overall front at 11.4% fair value, with a best price of 13c on Kalshi. That leaves roughly 1.6 cents of vig over fair value, a tight spread for the most heavily traded contract on the board.
Oregon at 10.3% and Indiana at 8.4% round out the Big Ten's live trio, both showing their cheapest price on Kalshi (11c and 9c respectively). For traders reading the conference race, the model's stance is that value clusters at the top of this group rather than in the field behind it.
How does Notre Dame's independence change the math?
Notre Dame ranks second overall at 11.2% fair value, best price 13c on Polymarket, yet it carries no conference title. As an Independent, its entire path to the playoff and beyond runs through the at-large route, so none of that equity shows up on any conference board.
That absence matters for how the conference markets should be read. Notre Dame's 11.2% competes for national-title and playoff share without ever touching a conference contract, which effectively concentrates the priced conference value among the Big Ten and SEC front-runners.
What about the ACC?
Miami leads the ACC at 6.8% national-title fair value, best price 8c on Polymarket, and stands clear of the rest of that conference's field on the model. On a conference board that thins out quickly behind the leader, that gap makes Miami the cleanest single-team read available among the non-Big Ten, non-SEC groups.
The takeaway across boards: the model points conference-title value toward a small set of names, the Big Ten's top three, the SEC's top two, and Miami in the ACC. Prices and the model can both be wrong, and vig varies by venue, so the cheapest route matters. Cross-venue shoppers can weigh Kalshi (promo FADE) against Polymarket (promo TGSWC) when the two disagree on best price.
