Across the national-title board, the clearest conference-title value sits with Florida. The model's fair value is 9.3%, while the best price is 2c on Kalshi, the widest gap between model and market on the entire board. No other contract pairs a top-five fair value with a near-floor price.
One framing note up front: the figures here are national-title fair values and prices, not standalone conference-title odds. For power-conference teams, winning the league is the gate to the title, so the title board is used as the cleanest priced read on conference strength.
Why national-title prices map onto conference-title value
A national championship runs through a conference title for every power-conference program on the board. That makes title contracts a usable proxy: a team the market rates highly to win it all is, by construction, rated highly to win its league first.
The de-vigged consensus fair value strips venue margin and blends Kalshi and Polymarket into a single probability. Comparing that fair value against the cheapest available price is where the signal lives. A price well below fair value flags a contract the market may be underpricing; a price above it flags the reverse.
Where is the value in the SEC?
The SEC is the most crowded conference on the board, with six priced contenders. Florida (9.3%) and Texas (9.1%) head the group, trailed by Georgia (5.4%), LSU (4.3%), and Alabama and Texas A&M tied at 3.3%.
Depth cuts both ways. A six-deep field means the conference-title probability is split across more credible teams, which holds individual prices down. Yet Florida's 2c best price on Kalshi sits far under its 9.3% fair value, the standout dislocation in the set. Texas, by contrast, trades at 9c against a 9.1% fair value, essentially fair.
Texas A&M is the one mild outlier on the rich side: a 4c best price against a 3.3% fair value. The cheaper venue for Florida is Kalshi, where the FADE code applies.
Which Big Ten team offers value?
The Big Ten board is led by Ohio State at a 9.5% fair value and a 9c best price on Kalshi, with Oregon close behind at 9.1% and 9c on Polymarket. Both trade at or slightly under fair value, leaving little edge at the top.
The interesting line is Indiana. The model's fair value is 6.1%, while the best price is 5c on Polymarket, a clear discount inside a deep league. For traders reading conference strength off the title board, Indiana is the Big Ten contract priced below where the model sees it.
The ACC and the Notre Dame wrinkle
The ACC has a single priced contender: Miami at a 6.8% fair value and a 7c best price on Kalshi, sitting close to fair. With no second ACC team on the board, the conference's title probability concentrates more cleanly than the SEC's split field.
Then there is the structural quirk at the top. Notre Dame leads the entire title board at a 9.8% fair value and an 11c best price on Polymarket, yet as an Independent it plays in no conference-title market at all. Its title path skips a league championship, which is why the board's highest-rated team is invisible to any conference market.
Where the cheapest prices sit
Sorting by best price surfaces the same names. Florida's 2c on Kalshi is the floor among credible contenders, followed by Indiana and Georgia at 5c on Polymarket and Miami at 7c on Kalshi. Ohio State and Oregon anchor the 9c tier.
Prices and the model can both be wrong, and a low price is not a verdict on its own. The point of the exercise is the spread between the two: Florida is where that spread is largest, and the SEC and Big Ten depth charts explain why the value is concentrated rather than spread evenly. None of this is financial advice.
