The model fades the top of the college football national-title board, where the cheapest available price still implies a probability above the model's fair value. Texas leads that group: its best price is 12c on Polymarket against a 9.9% fair value. Ohio State and Notre Dame follow, each at 13c versus an 11.3% fair value, the joint-highest fair value on the board.
The pattern is consistent across the favorites. Best price sits above model fair value for every contract in the top tier, so the fade is less about any single team and more about the cost of entry at the front of the market.
Which national-title contracts does the model fade?
Ranked by the gap between best price and fair value, Texas is the widest at 12c against 9.9%. Ohio State and Notre Dame share the next spots at 13c against 11.3%, each about 1.7 cent-points rich. Miami trades 8c against a 6.7% fair value, and Georgia 10c against 9%.
LSU rounds out the fade group at 6c against a 5% fair value. In each case the market's cheapest entry point already prices in more title equity than the model assigns, which is the definition of a contract the model reads as rich.
The takeaway is that shopping venues narrows the fade but does not erase it. Even after selecting the cheapest of Kalshi and Polymarket for each team, the residual gap remains positive across the favorites.
How wide is each fade?
The model's fair value ladder shows how tightly the top of the board is packed. Ohio State and Notre Dame anchor at 11.3%, with Oregon, Texas and Georgia inside a two-point band beneath them.
Read alongside the best-price ladder, the picture is a market that prices the favorites a shade above the model at every rung.
Why does the best price still top fair value?
The gap is the cost floor. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the cheapest ask reflects residual vig and one-directional demand for the marquee names, and that premium survives even after de-vigging into a consensus fair value.
For Texas, the 12c print implies roughly 12% versus the model's 9.9%, so the entry price embeds about two extra points of probability. For Ohio State and Notre Dame, the 13c print sits about 1.7 points over an 11.3% number. Those are small absolute figures, but on longshot-adjacent pricing they compound.
This is why the model treats the front of the board as a fade rather than a target: the model's edge, if any, lives lower down where price meets or undercuts fair value.
Where does the fade nearly disappear?
Not every contract is priced rich. Indiana carries the thinnest top-tier gap at 9c against an 8.7% fair value, a fraction of a cent-point, which is close enough to fair that the fade barely registers.
Further down, several longshots price at or below fair value rather than above it, which is where the model's stance flips from fade to neutral. The distinction matters: a fade is a read that price tops the model, not a blanket call against a team's season.
What the fades mean for venue selection
The best-price map still points to the cheapest venue for each contract, even when the model fades it. Kalshi holds the low ask on Ohio State, Notre Dame, Oregon and Georgia at 13c, 13c, 11c and 10c. Polymarket owns Texas at 12c, Miami at 8c and LSU at 6c.
For traders who still want exposure to a faded favorite, venue selection is the lever that trims the premium: taking the low ask shaves the gap toward fair value without changing the model's read. Promo credit can offset entry costs at the margin, with Kalshi's FADE and Polymarket's TGSWC the relevant codes.
The bottom line: the model fades the front of the national-title board because best price sits above fair value on every top contract, with Texas the widest gap and Indiana the tightest. Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice.
