The model's sharpest national-title fade right now is LSU: the cheapest contract sits at 6c on Polymarket against a fair value of 5.1%, a premium of roughly 18% over the model's estimate. Across the board, the model fades seven teams where the best available price still trades above fair value, and leaves the rest alone.
A fade here is a statement about price, not about the season. It flags contracts the market is charging more for than the model thinks the outcome is worth. Prices and the model can both be wrong; this is relative value, not a forecast of who lifts the trophy.
Which national-title contracts does the model fade?
Seven contracts carry a positive premium, where the best price exceeds fair value: Ohio State (12c vs 11.2%), Notre Dame (12c vs 11%), Oregon (11c vs 10.1%), Georgia (9c vs 8.7%), Miami (7c vs 6.7%), LSU (6c vs 5.1%) and Texas A&M (3c vs 2.9%).
In cents these gaps look small, and most are. What matters is the premium relative to fair value. Texas A&M, Georgia and Miami all round to a fraction of a cent over fair, which is closer to venue vig than a genuine mispricing. The real fades sit higher up and, in LSU's case, lower down the board.
Why is LSU the widest fade?
LSU is the standout because its premium is largest in percentage terms. A 6c price against a 5.1% fair value is a gap of about 0.9c, but on a sub-6% base that is close to an 18% markup over the model's number. The same absolute gap on a top-of-board team barely registers.
That pattern is common in title markets: mid-tier contracts in the 5% to 7% range tend to attract the richest relative premiums, because round-number pricing and thin two-way interest push the ask above fair. The model reads LSU at 5.1c of value and sees 6c on the screen.
How wide is the premium at the very top?
At the head of the board, the fades are milder in relative terms. Ohio State posts the highest fair value at 11.2% yet still trades at 12c, cheapest on Kalshi, a premium of under a cent. Notre Dame shows the largest full-cent gap, 12c on Polymarket against 11% fair, and Oregon carries 11c against 10.1%.
Those premiums are consistent with an efficient, heavily-traded top tier: the market rounds probabilities to the nearest cent and the model lands just underneath. None of the top three is a strong fade, but each is priced a touch rich rather than cheap.
What the chart shows: price versus fair value
The two views below line up the model's fair value against the best market price for the fade group. In every case the price bar sits at or above the fair-value bar, which is the visual signature of a fade.
The gaps compress toward the top, where liquidity is deepest, and widen in percentage terms as fair value falls. LSU's 6c against 5.1% is the clearest example of price running ahead of the model.
Where the model stops fading
Not every contract is priced rich. Indiana (9.4% fair, 9c on Kalshi) and Texas (9.3% fair, 9c on Polymarket) both trade at or just under fair value, and Oklahoma (2.3% fair, 2c) and Alabama (2.2% fair, 2c) sit below their model numbers. Those are the contracts the model leaves alone or reads as slightly cheap, not fades.
On venue: Ohio State is cheapest on Kalshi, while Notre Dame, Oregon, Georgia, Miami and LSU show their best prices on Polymarket. Traders comparing venues can weigh the Polymarket TGSWC and Kalshi FADE promos, but the analysis stands on the prices themselves, not the sign-up terms. This is market research, not financial advice.
