The model fades most of the national-title board right now. Every priced contract except Ohio State trades at or above the model's fair value, and the widest gaps sit in the longshot tier, where Utah's 4c price on Kalshi runs well above its 2.5% fair mark. At the top, Georgia's 28c against 26.1% fair is a thin premium by comparison.
Which title teams does the model fade hardest?
The sharpest fades are at the bottom of the board, not the top. Utah prices 4c on Kalshi against a 2.5% fair value, a premium near 60% over the model's estimate. Oregon shows the same shape: 2c on Polymarket versus 1.4% fair, roughly a 40% markup on a low-probability outcome.
This is the familiar longshot pattern. Contracts priced in the low single digits of a cent carry the richest percentage premiums because the rounding and the vig weigh heaviest on small numbers. The model's fair value strips out the vig across venues, so the gap between a 4c ask and a 2.5% fair read is where the fade lives.
None of this implies these teams cannot win. It flags that the current price pays less than the model thinks the risk is worth.
Where do the board's favorites stand?
At the front of the market, the premiums narrow. Georgia tops the board at 28c on Kalshi against 26.1% fair, and Notre Dame sits at 18c versus 16.8% fair. Both are priced close to the model, with only a small cushion above fair value.
The middle tier is similar. Miami prices 10c on Polymarket against 8.9% fair, Alabama 10c against 9.3% fair, and Texas is the tightest of the group at 8c versus 7.8% fair, essentially a coin-flip on whether the price or the model is closer to right.
The takeaway: the favorites are not where the model sees the market stretched. The disagreement grows as the probabilities shrink.
Is anything trading below fair value?
Ohio State is the single exception. Its contract prices 1c on Polymarket against a 1.1% fair value, the only title line the model reads as cheap rather than rich. The gap is a fraction of a cent, so it is a technicality more than an opportunity, but it is the lone spot the model does not fade.
Two contracts land exactly on the model. Indiana prices 7c on Polymarket against 7% fair, and LSU prices 2c against 2% fair. Those are the board's fair-value anchors: no premium, no discount, nothing for the model to lean on in either direction.
How to read the fade board
The fade board is built from de-vigged prices across Kalshi and Polymarket, blended into a single consensus fair value, then compared with the cheapest venue for each team. A price above fair value is where the market pays less than the model's estimate of the risk; a price at or below fair is where the two agree or the market offers a discount.
Venue matters when acting on any of this. Kalshi holds the best price on Georgia, Notre Dame and Utah, while Polymarket leads on Alabama, Miami, Texas and Ohio State, so the cheapest contract depends on the team. New accounts can trade $25 and get up to $500 with Kalshi code FADE, or deposit $20 for a $50 bonus with Polymarket code TGSWC.
One caution: these are small-number markets, and both the price and the model can be wrong. The fade board is a map of disagreement, not a directive, and none of it is financial advice.
