Wyoming vs San José State
Wyoming visit San José State in Week 6. The model favors Wyoming by 1.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a coin flip: Wyoming rates -12.7 (116th), San Jose State -15.1 (120th), a 2.4-point edge to the visitor that rounds to a projected margin of zero and a 50-50 split. The market disagrees sharply, pricing San Jose State at -6.2 with a 65% implied probability against Wyoming's 35%. That 15-point probability gap is the trade: the model sees the higher-rated team, Wyoming, getting no respect from a line that leans on home field.
The unit ranks underline how thin the separation is. Wyoming's offense (126th) and San Jose State's offense (125th) are nearly identical liabilities, while Wyoming's defense (80th) grades well ahead of San Jose State's (105th), the one clear edge and the basis for the model's lean. Series history favors the host 5-2, but the last meeting in 2025 went to Wyoming 35-28.
Form is mixed. Wyoming alternates win and loss (27-10 over Hawai'i, then 0-28 at North Dakota State), while San Jose State sits 3-2 with a 20-16 win at Hawai'i. The 43.5 total fits two offenses ranked in the mid-120s.
Model calls it a toss-up while the market lays San Jose State -6.2, leaving a 15-point probability gap toward Wyoming.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Wyoming vs San José State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Wyoming vs San José State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Wyoming and San José State play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at San José State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Wyoming by 1.6 (54% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
San José State lead 5-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →