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Matchup preview

Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee

Western Kentucky visit Middle Tennessee in Week 10. The model favors Middle Tennessee by 0. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
50%
50%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#122SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#126
#94FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#130
1408EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1164
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Western KentuckyMiddle Tennesseesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Western Kentucky lead 10-2
Western Kentucky have won the last 7
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
42-26
Western Kentucky
at Western Kentucky
2024
49-21
Western Kentucky
at Middle Tennessee
2023
31-10
Western Kentucky
at Western Kentucky
2022
35-17
Western Kentucky
at Middle Tennessee
2021
48-21
Western Kentucky
at Western Kentucky
2020
20-17
Western Kentucky
at Middle Tennessee
2019
31-26
Western Kentucky
at Western Kentucky
2018
29-10
Middle Tennessee
at Middle Tennessee
2017
41-38
Western Kentucky
at Western Kentucky
2016
44-43
Western Kentucky
at Middle Tennessee
2015
58-28
Western Kentucky
at Western Kentucky
2014
50-47
Middle Tennessee
at Middle Tennessee
More Week 10 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee play?

Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Middle Tennessee.

Who is favored?

The model projects Middle Tennessee by 0 (50% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Western Kentucky lead 10-2 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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