Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee
Western Kentucky visit Middle Tennessee in Week 10. The model favors Western Kentucky by 1.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market read this one almost identically. SP+ projects Western Kentucky by 1.3, pricing a 53% win probability, and the consensus line across two books lands on Middle Tennessee +1.3 with a matching 53/47 split in the visitor's favor. The ProphetX exchange tracks close behind, with Western Kentucky offered at -111 (53%) against Middle Tennessee at +104 (49%). There is no meaningful disagreement to exploit here: every input leans Western Kentucky, but only by a field goal's fraction.
The ratings gap is thin and plays out among weak units. Western Kentucky sits 116th (-11.5), Middle Tennessee 125th (-15.2), a 3.7-point separation. Unit ranks are uniformly poor: Western Kentucky's offense 115th and defense 105th, Middle Tennessee's offense 117th and defense 119th, with the total set at 53.5. Series history skews harder than the rating does, Western Kentucky holding a 10-2 edge and taking the 2025 meeting 42-26.
Records add nuance. Western Kentucky is 3-5, its wins over Mercyhurst (52-7), Missouri State (34-13) and at Sam Houston (16-3), and projects to 4.7 wins. Middle Tennessee is 4-4 and projects to 5.7, the better season profile despite the lower rating. Neither carries any Playoff or title equity.
A near coin flip with model, market and exchange all pricing Western Kentucky a slim 53%, propped up by a lopsided series edge.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Western Kentucky's win price; Middle Tennessee's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Western Kentucky is favored, below it Middle Tennessee is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Middle Tennessee.
Who is favored?
The model projects Western Kentucky by 1.3 (53% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Western Kentucky lead 10-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →