Vanderbilt vs Auburn
Vanderbilt visit Auburn in Week 4. The model favors Auburn by 4.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these SEC teams by just 1.9 rating points, Auburn 11.6 (31st) over Vanderbilt 9.7 (39th), and projects Auburn by 4.3 with a 60% win probability. The market prices the game far harder: Auburn -9.5 on a 54.8 total implies 72%, and the ProphetX exchange pushes further with Auburn -325 (76%) against Vanderbilt +310 (24%). That 12-to-16 point probability gap between model and market is the central disagreement, with the number itself more than double the projected margin.
The unit ranks explain the shape rather than the size of the edge. Auburn's defense grades 20th against a Vanderbilt offense at 28th, while Vanderbilt's defense (57th) faces an Auburn offense ranked only 51st. Results this season cut against the price: Vanderbilt is 3-0, including 35-31 over NC State, while Auburn survived Baylor 17-16, handled Southern Miss 43-8, and fell to Florida 39-44. The series sits even at 2-2, and Vanderbilt took the last meeting 45-38 in 2025.
Season outlooks are close, Vanderbilt projected for 6.8 wins to Auburn's 6.4, with matched 0.8% market title odds. The model's 40% for Vanderbilt against a market implying 24 to 28% frames the value on the underdog side.
Model gives Auburn a 4.3-point edge, but the market's -9.5 and 76% price leave the value pointed at Vanderbilt.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Vanderbilt's win price; Auburn's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Vanderbilt is favored, below it Auburn is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Vanderbilt vs Auburn game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Vanderbilt vs Auburn market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Vanderbilt and Auburn play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Auburn.
Who is favored?
The model projects Auburn by 4.3 (60% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 2-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →