UTSA vs Florida Atlantic
UTSA visit Florida Atlantic in Week 10. The model favors UTSA by 4.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates UTSA at 3.5 (59th) against Florida Atlantic at -3.4 (90th), a 6.9-point gap that projects UTSA by 4.5 and a 61 percent win probability. The market pushes further: Florida Atlantic sits at +7 with an implied 34 percent, and the ProphetX exchange prices UTSA at -240, or 71 percent, against the home side at +235. Both reads agree on the favorite, but the market is roughly ten points of probability more confident in UTSA than the model is.
The unit ranks explain the lofty 72.8 total. UTSA's 38th-ranked offense draws Florida Atlantic's 123rd defense, while the 44th-ranked home offense meets a UTSA defense at 82nd. Form matches the numbers: UTSA is 7-1 with wins over South Florida 31-24, Navy 38-34 and Tulane 42-19, its only loss 6-30 at Texas. Florida Atlantic is 5-3, splitting results from a 51-49 win over Rice to a 24-56 loss at Army.
The season simulations widen the separation, projecting 9.5 wins and a 10.2 percent Playoff chance for UTSA versus 6.8 wins and 0.1 percent for Florida Atlantic. The series is tight at 3-2 in Florida Atlantic's favor, but UTSA took the 2024 meeting 38-24, consistent with every current signal leaning its way.
Model likes UTSA by 4.5 and the market likes the Roadrunners more still, with both units pointing the same direction.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as UTSA's win price; Florida Atlantic's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line UTSA is favored, below it Florida Atlantic is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the UTSA vs Florida Atlantic game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UTSA vs Florida Atlantic market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do UTSA and Florida Atlantic play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 6, 2026 at Florida Atlantic.
Who is favored?
The model projects UTSA by 4.5 (61% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Florida Atlantic lead 3-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →