UL Monroe vs UAB
UL Monroe visit UAB in Week 2. The model favors UAB by 18. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 17.2 points, rating UAB at -16 (123rd) against UL Monroe at -33.2 (138th), and that gap drives a projected UAB margin of 19.6 with an 88% win probability. The market is far more cautious: UAB -10 and a 55.8 total imply only 73% for the hosts. That 15-point probability spread, and the near-doubled model margin versus the -10 line, marks the clearest disagreement here, with the model pricing UAB well above where two books have settled.
Unit ranks favor UAB on both sides, its offense 100th against UL Monroe's 138th, though its defense (128th) is closer to the Warhawks' 138th mark. Week 1 offered little support for either: UL Monroe lost 13-62 at Mississippi State, and UAB fell 23-42 at Illinois, both double-digit road defeats. Season projections stay modest at 4.5 wins for UAB and 2.5 for UL Monroe, with neither given any Playoff or title equity across 10,000 runs.
Series history is the lone counterweight to the model. The only prior meeting came in 2024, when UL Monroe won 32-6, leaving UAB 0-1 in the matchup. That result argues for the market's shorter number over the model's 19.6-point projection.
The model wants UAB by nearly 20, but a -10 line and a 32-6 series memory keep the market honest.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the UL Monroe vs UAB game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UL Monroe vs UAB market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do UL Monroe and UAB play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at UAB.
Who is favored?
The model projects UAB by 18 (86% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
UL Monroe lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →