Tulsa vs Tulane
Tulsa visit Tulane in Week 10. The model favors Tulsa by 3.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these American sides by six rating points, Tulsa at -2.2 (rank 82) against Tulane at -8.2 (rank 102), and projects Tulsa by 3.6 with a 59% win probability. The market is more cautious: the consensus line is Tulane +1.5 with a 49.8 total, implying 54% for Tulsa, and the ProphetX exchange shows Tulsa -116 (54%) against Tulane +115 (47%). The model's edge on Tulsa runs roughly five points clear of where the price sits, a clear disagreement rather than a rounding gap.
Unit ranks frame the lean. Tulsa pairs the 68th offense with a 94th defense, while Tulane counters with a 110th offense and an 83rd defense, so the model's preference leans on Tulsa's scoring side against the weaker Tulane attack. The series is tight at 6-5 Tulane, but the last meeting in 2025 went to Tulane 31-14, the one strand of history cutting against the ratings read.
Both enter at 4-4. Tulsa's wins include 24-10 over Oklahoma State and 38-17 at Rice, with losses by one to North Texas (44-45) and three to Army (35-38). Tulane's form is streaky: a 31-17 win over Memphis and 38-31 at Charlotte alongside a 19-42 loss to UTSA. Season sims give Tulsa 6.3 projected wins to Tulane's 5.7, consistent with the model's edge.
The model backs Tulsa harder than the market, giving a five-point edge on a line the exchange still prices near a coin flip.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Tulsa's win price; Tulane's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Tulsa is favored, below it Tulane is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Tulsa vs Tulane game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Tulsa vs Tulane market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Tulsa and Tulane play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Tulane.
Who is favored?
The model projects Tulsa by 3.6 (59% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Tulane lead 6-5 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →