Temple vs Navy
Temple visit Navy in Week 10. The model favors Navy by 8.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market sit close on this one. SP+ rates Navy at -1.6 (80th) against Temple at -7.7 (99th), a 6.1-point ratings gap that translates to a projected Navy margin of 8.5. The consensus line of Navy -7.5 lands just under that number, and the probabilities nearly match: the model gives Navy 70 percent, the two-book market 68 percent, and the ProphetX exchange prices Navy at -270, or 73 percent. Temple trades at +250, an implied 29 percent against the model's 30. There is no meaningful disagreement to exploit here.
The unit split explains the edge. Navy's offense ranks 52nd to Temple's 79th, while both defenses sit near the bottom, Navy 101st and Temple 117th, a pairing that supports the 54.5 total. The series is tight at Navy 6-4, and the 2025 meeting went to Navy 32-31, a one-point result that argues against reading too much into the ratings gap.
Form backs the market read without flattering either side. Navy is 2-6 with wins over Towson and Tulsa and losses to Notre Dame 13-35 and North Texas 39-49. Temple is 2-6, its wins over Rhode Island and at South Florida, with a 48-49 loss at Toledo and a 17-21 loss to Army. Season projections of 4.3 wins for Navy and 3.8 for Temple frame two teams playing out the string.
Model, market, and exchange all cluster on Navy by roughly a touchdown, with the one-point 2025 result the only caution.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Temple's win price; Navy's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Temple is favored, below it Navy is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Temple vs Navy game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Temple vs Navy market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Temple and Navy play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Navy.
Who is favored?
The model projects Navy by 8.5 (70% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Navy lead 6-4 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →