TCU vs Arizona
TCU visit Arizona in Week 10. The model favors Arizona by 9.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ installs Arizona at 16 (14th) against TCU at 8.6 (41st), a rating gap that converts to a 72% win probability and a projected 9.8-point margin. The consensus line sits almost exactly there: Arizona -8.7 with a 44.5 total and a 70/30 split. The ProphetX exchange leans harder on the favorite, pricing Arizona -305 (75%) and TCU +295 (25%), the only real daylight between the model and the market.
The unit ranks frame the matchup. Arizona's offense (14th) runs into the game's sharpest edge, TCU's defense (11th), while TCU's offense (83rd) faces Arizona's 24th-ranked defense. Form favors the home side: Arizona is 6-2 with a 52-31 win at West Virginia and a 39-3 result over Iowa State, while TCU sits 4-4, its best recent work a 22-16 win over Kansas.
Series history offers the lone counterweight: the only prior meeting, in 2024, went to TCU 49-28. The season simulations keep the teams far apart, projecting 8.5 wins and 24.9% Playoff odds for Arizona against 5.6 wins and 0.9% for TCU.
Model and market align on Arizona near a nine-point favorite; the exchange's 75% is the only real lean past the 70% consensus.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as TCU's win price; Arizona's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line TCU is favored, below it Arizona is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the TCU vs Arizona game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the TCU vs Arizona market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do TCU and Arizona play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Arizona.
Who is favored?
The model projects Arizona by 9.8 (72% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
TCU lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →