South Florida vs East Carolina
South Florida visit East Carolina in Week 10. The model favors South Florida by 3.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market take opposite sides. SP+ rates South Florida at 2.2 (rank 63) against East Carolina at -4 (rank 91), a roughly six-point edge that projects South Florida by 3.8 and assigns it a 59 percent win probability. The consensus line disagrees, posting East Carolina -2.5 with a 56 percent implied chance, and the ProphetX exchange echoes it at East Carolina -123 (55 percent) versus South Florida +118 (46 percent). The total sits at 39.5.
The unit ranks favor South Florida on both lines of scrimmage: offense #72 to East Carolina's #105, defense #54 to #70. The series is tight at East Carolina 4, South Florida 5, though the last meeting in 2022 went to East Carolina 48-28. Season simulations tilt the same way as the ratings, projecting 8.3 wins for South Florida and 6.1 for East Carolina, with neither reaching 1 percent to win the title.
Results back the gap. South Florida is 6-2 with wins at Army 28-24 and over UAB 30-10, its losses by four to Temple and seven at UTSA. East Carolina is 4-4, blown out 48-10 at Alabama but holding Temple to 17-9, and the ratings favor the visitor despite the market's lean toward the home side.
The model backs South Florida at 59 percent while the market prices East Carolina as a narrow favorite, a clean side disagreement.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as South Florida's win price; East Carolina's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line South Florida is favored, below it East Carolina is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the South Florida vs East Carolina game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the South Florida vs East Carolina market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do South Florida and East Carolina play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at East Carolina.
Who is favored?
The model projects South Florida by 3.8 (59% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
South Florida lead 5-4 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →