South Florida vs Bowling Green
South Florida visit Bowling Green in Week 4. The model favors South Florida by 21.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by nearly 24 rating points, USF at 1.9 (66th) against Bowling Green at -22 (134th), and the model converts that into a 90% USF win probability with a projected 21.5-point margin. The market sits a notch softer: Bowling Green +17.5 implies 14% for the home dog, and the ProphetX exchange is firmer still at USF -850, or 89%. Every source agrees on direction; the only debate is degree, with the model's 21.5 stretching four points past the 17.5 consensus line.
The unit ranks explain the gap. USF's offense (47th) faces a Bowling Green defense ranked 118th, while the USF defense (83rd) meets a Bowling Green offense down at 138th. Results back the ratings: USF is 3-0 with wins over Florida International 19-9, at Army 28-24, and Delaware State 59-17. Bowling Green is 0-3, beaten by Tarleton State 13-20 and blown out 7-56 at Nebraska and 7-55 at Iowa State, offering little on either side of the ball.
Season simulations reinforce the divide: USF projects to 9 wins with an 8.8% Playoff chance, Bowling Green to 3.4 wins and 0%. The model line is more aggressive than the market, so the pricing question is whether Bowling Green can stay inside 17.5.
A four-point gap between the model's 21.5 and the market's 17.5 is the only live question in an otherwise unanimous USF read.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as South Florida's win price; Bowling Green's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line South Florida is favored, below it Bowling Green is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the South Florida vs Bowling Green game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the South Florida vs Bowling Green market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do South Florida and Bowling Green play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Bowling Green.
Who is favored?
The model projects South Florida by 21.5 (90% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →