South Alabama vs Tulane
South Alabama visit Tulane in Week 2. The model favors Tulane by 5.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by four rating points, Tulane at -7.4 (95th) over South Alabama at -11.4 (107th), and translates that into a projected Tulane margin of 6.4 and a 65 percent win probability. The market prices the home side harder: a consensus Tulane -9 with a 49.5 total implies 71 percent, and ProphetX offers push it further to Tulane -310 (76 percent) against South Alabama +295 (25 percent). Every source favors Tulane, but the model leaves more room for the visitor than the number does.
The unit ranks complicate the lean. Tulane's defense (78) is the best individual unit on the field and draws South Alabama's 90th-ranked offense, yet Tulane's offense (111) faces the game's weakest unit, South Alabama's 118th defense. That mismatch cuts both ways. The series is one-sided at 0-3, though the 2025 meeting went 33-31, closer than the model or market spread here.
Early results split the read: South Alabama opened with a 39-14 win over SE Louisiana, while Tulane was held to a 3-17 loss at Duke. Season projections still favor the visitor's win total, 6.6 to 5.3, with neither team a Playoff factor at 0.3 and 0.5 percent.
Model and market both back Tulane, but the model's 65 percent trails the market's 71, leaving the visitor's price the more generous side.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as South Alabama's win price; Tulane's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line South Alabama is favored, below it Tulane is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the South Alabama vs Tulane game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the South Alabama vs Tulane market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do South Alabama and Tulane play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Tulane.
Who is favored?
The model projects Tulane by 5.9 (64% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Tulane lead 3-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →