San Diego State vs Colorado State
San Diego State visit Colorado State in Week 8. The model favors Colorado State by 2.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The SP+ ratings separate these teams by less than a point, with San Diego State at -8.7 (104th) and Colorado State at -9.6 (111th). The model still tilts toward the home side, giving Colorado State a 54% win probability and projecting a 1.5-point margin. The market disagrees outright: the consensus line sits at Colorado State +1.3 with an implied 47%, and the ProphetX exchange prices San Diego State at -105 (51%) against Colorado State at +102 (50%). The model sees a slight home edge where both venues make San Diego State the favorite.
The unit ranks frame the total of 63.5: the Colorado State offense (64th) is the best single unit on the field, but its defense (132nd) is the worst, while San Diego State grades 108th and 99th. Series history favors the visitor at 2-4 for Colorado State, including a 45-24 San Diego State win in the 2025 meeting. Form cuts the same way: San Diego State is 3-4 with wins over Portland State, Texas State and Fresno State, while Colorado State opened 2-0 against Wyoming and Southern Utah, then dropped four straight, allowing 59, 56 and 66 points.
Projections stay modest: 4.8 wins for San Diego State, 4 for Colorado State, with neither carrying any Playoff or title equity across the 10,000-run simulation.
The model leans Colorado State by 1.5 while both market venues favor San Diego State: a clean disagreement on a coin-flip game.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as San Diego State's win price; Colorado State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line San Diego State is favored, below it Colorado State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the San Diego State vs Colorado State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the San Diego State vs Colorado State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do San Diego State and Colorado State play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at Colorado State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Colorado State by 2.6 (56% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
San Diego State lead 4-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →