Rice vs North Texas
Rice visit North Texas in Week 10. The model favors North Texas by 16. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ pegs this as a clear separation: North Texas at -0.6 (rank 72) against Rice at -14.2 (rank 122), a 13.6-point ratings gap that translates to a projected North Texas margin of 16 and an 83 percent model win probability. The consensus line across two books stretches that to North Texas -17.2 with a 64.3 total, implying 85 percent, and the ProphetX exchange prices North Texas at -740 (88 percent) versus Rice at +690 (13 percent). Model and market agree on direction; the market simply leans a touch harder on the favorite.
The unit splits explain the gap and the elevated total. North Texas runs the 24th-rated offense into a Rice defense ranked 115th, a mismatch the 64.3 number reflects. The other side is closer to even on paper: Rice offense 111th against a North Texas defense ranked 119th. Series history tilts the same way, with North Texas leading 7-3 and winning the 2025 meeting 56-24.
Results reinforce the ratings. North Texas sits at 6-2 with a projected 8.4 wins, having scored 44 or more in six games including 49-39 at Navy and 48-41 over Florida Atlantic. Rice is 1-7 with a 2.4-win projection, its lone win 31-3 over Houston Christian and its losses including 56-24 to this opponent a year ago. Neither carries title equity: Rice at 0 percent, North Texas at 2.4 percent to reach the Playoff.
Model and market both land on North Texas by roughly 16 to 17, and the 6-2 profile against a 1-7 Rice backs it.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Rice's win price; North Texas's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Rice is favored, below it North Texas is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Rice vs North Texas game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Rice vs North Texas market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Rice and North Texas play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at North Texas.
Who is favored?
The model projects North Texas by 16 (83% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
North Texas lead 7-3 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →