Rice vs Florida Atlantic
Rice visit Florida Atlantic in Week 8. The model favors Florida Atlantic by 13.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market point the same direction with different conviction. SP+ rates Florida Atlantic at -2.6 (86th) against Rice at -14.2 (122nd), an 11.6-point edge that projects to a 14-point home margin and an 80% win probability. The consensus line is softer at -7.2 with a 51.5 total, implying 67%, while the ProphetX exchange sits between the two, pricing Florida Atlantic at -285 (74%) and Rice at +265 (27%). The ratings gap is one-sided, but the market is discounting roughly half the model's projected margin.
The unit ranks explain the hesitation. Florida Atlantic's offense (54th) is the only above-average group on the field; both defenses are poor, Rice 108th and Florida Atlantic 113th, which supports the 51.5 total. Rice's offense ranks 121st, the weakest unit in the matchup, and the form backs it: one win over Houston Christian (31-3) against six losses, with 12 points at East Carolina and 14 versus UTSA. Florida Atlantic is 4-2 with scoring outbursts of 66, 45 and 38, but also surrendered 66 and 56 in its two losses.
Season simulations separate the programs, Florida Atlantic at 7 projected wins versus Rice at 2.6, and the series is tight at 3-2 Florida Atlantic, including last year's 27-21 result. The numbers favor the home side, though the market's shorter line reflects two leaky defenses.
Every rating favors Florida Atlantic, but the market's 7.2 shades well under the model's 14, splitting the difference on two bad defenses.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Rice's win price; Florida Atlantic's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Rice is favored, below it Florida Atlantic is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Rice vs Florida Atlantic game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Rice vs Florida Atlantic market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Rice and Florida Atlantic play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at Florida Atlantic.
Who is favored?
The model projects Florida Atlantic by 13.2 (79% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Florida Atlantic lead 3-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →