Florida vs Missouri

SP+ makes this closer than the market. The model rates Florida 18.5 (12th) against Missouri 13.7 (25th) and projects Florida by 2.4, a 56% Florida win probability. The consensus line of Missouri +5.5 implies 63% Florida, and the ProphetX exchange pushes further to Florida -205, or 67%. That is a 7 to 11 point gap between the model's read and the traded price, all of it leaning toward Florida. The unit ranks explain the tension: Florida's offense (9th) is the sharpest number on the board, but Missouri's defense (14th) outranks it, while Florida's defense (31st) faces a weaker Missouri offense (40th).

Results so far cut against the model's caution. Florida is 4-0 with wins at Auburn 44-39 and over Ole Miss 52-28, while Missouri is 3-1, its lone blemish a 31-24 loss at Mississippi State. The only prior meeting went Missouri's way, 33-31 in 2023. Season-long, the simulation gives Florida 8.6 wins and 30.6% Playoff odds against Missouri's 7.1 and 8.9%.

The model likes Florida by a field goal; the market and exchange price a far wider edge, leaving Missouri +5.5 the number in question.

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.