Redshirt
Matchup preview

Florida vs Missouri

Florida visit Missouri in Week 5. The model favors Florida by 0.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
51%
49%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Florida55%-37 ptsvsMissouri45%+37 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Florida favoredMissouri favoredSep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Florida's win price; Missouri's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Florida is favored, below it Missouri is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#15SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#22
#37FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#22
1593EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1750
4.3%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.8%
FloridaMissourisolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Series even 5-5
20142023
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2023
33-31
Missouri
at Missouri
2022
24-17
Florida
at Florida
2021
24-23
Missouri
at Missouri
2020
41-17
Florida
at Florida
2019
23-6
Florida
at Missouri
2018
38-17
Missouri
at Florida
2017
45-16
Missouri
at Missouri
2016
40-14
Florida
at Florida
2015
21-3
Florida
at Missouri
2014
42-13
Missouri
at Florida
More Week 5 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Florida vs Missouri game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Florida vs Missouri market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Florida and Missouri play?

Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at Missouri.

Who is favored?

The model projects Florida by 0.4 (51% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Series even 5-5 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

Trade this game
Code VAULT: trade $10, get $20
ProphetX →