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Matchup preview

Ohio vs Akron

Ohio visit Akron in Week 10. The model favors Ohio by 21.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
90%
10%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
OHIO -12.3
Total (O/U)
52.3
Favorite
OHIO
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)
Ohio
77%

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Ohio99%+19 ptsvsAkron1%-19 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Ohio favoredAkron favoredOct 25Oct 27Oct 30Nov 1Nov 3Nov 4

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Ohio's win price; Akron's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Ohio is favored, below it Akron is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#79SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#135
#74FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#128
1584EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1101
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
OhioAkronsolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Ohio lead 10-1
Ohio have won the last 7
20152024
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2024
30-10
Ohio
at Ohio
2023
25-14
Ohio
at Akron
2022
55-34
Ohio
at Ohio
2021
34-17
Ohio
at Akron
2020
24-10
Ohio
at Ohio
2019
52-3
Ohio
at Akron
2018
49-28
Ohio
at Ohio
2017
37-34
Akron
at Akron
2016
9-3
Ohio
at Ohio
2015
14-12
Ohio
at Akron
2014
23-20
Ohio
at Ohio
More Week 10 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Ohio vs Akron game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Ohio vs Akron market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Ohio and Akron play?

Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 4, 2026 at Akron.

Who is favored?

The model projects Ohio by 21.2 (90% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Ohio lead 10-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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