Northern Illinois vs Wyoming
Northern Illinois visit Wyoming in Week 7. The model favors Wyoming by 24.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 9.7 rating points, with Wyoming at -13.8 (rank 122) over Northern Illinois at -23.5 (rank 133), and projects Wyoming by 12.1 on a 77% win probability. The consensus market is more cautious at Wyoming -7.7 with a 40.5 total, implying 68%, while the ProphetX exchange sits closest to the model at 74% on Wyoming -290 and 27% on Northern Illinois +270. The disagreement is one of degree, not direction: every input favors Wyoming, but the model prices the edge four to five points larger than the two books.
The unit ranks explain the split. Both offenses rate 134th, so the separation is defensive, where Wyoming's 79th-ranked unit towers over Northern Illinois at 128th. Results reinforce it: Northern Illinois is winless with losses by 40, 4, 25, 21 and 21, while Wyoming is 3-3 with wins over Northern Colorado, Hawai'i and San Jose State. Simulations project 5.4 wins for Wyoming against 2 for Northern Illinois, and the series favors Wyoming 2-0, last meeting a 50-43 result in 2021.
Both model and market tilt to Wyoming, but the roughly five-point gap between the lines leaves the degree of the edge in question.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Northern Illinois's win price; Wyoming's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Northern Illinois is favored, below it Wyoming is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 8.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Northern Illinois vs Wyoming game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Northern Illinois vs Wyoming market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Northern Illinois and Wyoming play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Wyoming.
Who is favored?
The model projects Wyoming by 24.3 (93% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Wyoming lead 2-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →