North Texas vs Navy
North Texas visit Navy in Week 8. The model favors Navy by 1.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ makes this a coin flip tilted slightly to Navy, rating the hosts 0.2 (72nd) against North Texas at -0.9 (77th) and projecting Navy by 3.5 with a 58 percent win probability. The market reads it the other way: the consensus line of Navy +2.5 implies just 44 percent, and the ProphetX exchange prices North Texas at -125 (56 percent) with Navy at +119 (46 percent). That is a clean model-versus-market split, with the SP+ favorite trading as the underdog.
The unit ranks explain the tension. North Texas carries the better offense (38th to 58th) but a defense down at 116th, while Navy sits 88th on defense and 58th on offense. A projected total of 62.5 fits two leaky back ends. Results reinforce the profile: North Texas is 4-2 with blowouts over UNLV (44-6), Charlotte (50-10) and a 45-44 escape at Tulsa, offset by losses at Indiana (16-52) and Texas State (35-49). Navy is 2-4, its wins over Towson and Tulsa framed by narrow defeats to FAU, UAB, Air Force (9-14) and UTSA.
The series is even at 1-1, with North Texas taking the 2025 meeting 31-17. Season-long, the sims give North Texas 7.4 projected wins against Navy's 5.1, lending weight to the market's lean toward the visitors over the model's modest home edge.
Model nudges Navy by 3.5, but the market and exchange back North Texas near 56 percent: a clean favorite-underdog disagreement.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as North Texas's win price; Navy's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line North Texas is favored, below it Navy is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the North Texas vs Navy game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the North Texas vs Navy market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do North Texas and Navy play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at Navy.
Who is favored?
The model projects Navy by 1.4 (53% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →