New Mexico vs Nevada
New Mexico visit Nevada in Week 10. The model favors New Mexico by 10. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market are in rare lockstep here. SP+ rates New Mexico 9.3 (37th) against Nevada at -3.1 (89th), a 12.4-point ratings gap that projects New Mexico by 10. The model's 73% win probability sits right on the consensus line of Nevada +9.5 and its 72% implied number. The ProphetX exchange leans a touch harder, pricing New Mexico at -340 for 77% against Nevada's +325, so the only disagreement is a few points of margin, not direction.
The unit splits explain the gap. New Mexico pairs the 20th defense with the 68th offense, while Nevada brings the 107th offense and a middling 55th defense, a mismatch the 36.8 total already reflects. Nevada leads the series 4-2, but New Mexico took the 2025 meeting 24-22. Season form reinforces the ratings: New Mexico is 7-1 with its lone loss 6-14 at Oklahoma and road wins at Hawai'i and San Jose State. Nevada is 3-5, fresh off 0-27 at UCLA.
Simulation outlooks widen the divide further: New Mexico projects to 9.8 wins with a 25.2% Playoff chance, Nevada to 5.2 wins and 0%. Nothing in the numbers argues for the home underdog beyond the single-score history.
Model, consensus line and exchange all converge on New Mexico by roughly ten, leaving little daylight for Nevada.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as New Mexico's win price; Nevada's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line New Mexico is favored, below it Nevada is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the New Mexico vs Nevada game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the New Mexico vs Nevada market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do New Mexico and Nevada play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Nevada.
Who is favored?
The model projects New Mexico by 10 (73% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Nevada lead 4-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →