Nebraska vs Michigan State
Nebraska visit Michigan State in Week 4. The model favors Nebraska by 9.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams cleanly: Nebraska rates 14.5 (23rd) against Michigan State at 2.3 (65th), a gap of more than 12 points. That drives a projected Nebraska margin of 9.8 and a model win probability of 72 percent. The market is more cautious, hanging Michigan State at plus 5.5 with a total of 48.8 and implying Nebraska at 63 percent. The ProphetX exchange splits the difference, with Nebraska at minus 205 for a 67 percent implied number. The disagreement is one of degree, not direction: every input favors Nebraska, but the model reads the edge as roughly nine points wider than the consensus line.
The unit ranks reinforce the spread, with Nebraska stronger on both sides (offense 24, defense 24) than Michigan State (offense 63, defense 60). Results add nuance: Nebraska is 3-0 but against Ohio, Bowling Green and North Dakota, while Michigan State beat Toledo and Eastern Michigan before falling 10-27 at Notre Dame. The series is even at 3-3, though Nebraska took the last meeting 38-27 in 2025. Season simulations project 7.5 wins for Nebraska against 5.4 for Michigan State.
The model prices Nebraska well ahead of the market, and the exchange sits between the two.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Nebraska's win price; Michigan State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Nebraska is favored, below it Michigan State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Nebraska vs Michigan State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Nebraska vs Michigan State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Nebraska and Michigan State play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Michigan State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Nebraska by 9.8 (72% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 3-3 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →