Nebraska vs Illinois
Nebraska visit Illinois in Week 10. The model favors Nebraska by 6.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 8.6 points, rating Nebraska 15.4 (15th) against Illinois at 6.8 (48th), and projects Nebraska by 6.2. The model's 65% Nebraska win probability lines up exactly with the ProphetX exchange price of -182, while the two-book consensus is lighter at Illinois +4.5 and a 61% Nebraska number. That half-point gap between the projected 6.2 margin and the 4.5 line is where the edge, if any, sits.
The unit ranks explain the lean: Nebraska's defense (#16) grades well ahead of Illinois's (#63), and the offenses are close at #34 and #36. Season form muddies it. Nebraska opened 5-0 but has dropped three straight, losing to Indiana 17-20, at Oregon 14-17, and to Washington 10-17. Illinois has won four of five, including 21-10 over Oregon and 20-17 at Maryland, after a 19-42 loss at Ohio State.
Series history is even at 5-6 for Illinois, which took the 2024 meeting 31-24. Season outlooks favor Nebraska at 7.2 projected wins and 12.9% Playoff odds versus Illinois's 6.5 and 1.5%. Total is set at 50.3.
Model and exchange agree on Nebraska at 65%, but the 4.5 consensus line trails the projected 6.2 margin with Illinois surging.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Nebraska's win price; Illinois's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Nebraska is favored, below it Illinois is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Nebraska vs Illinois game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Nebraska vs Illinois market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Nebraska and Illinois play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Illinois.
Who is favored?
The model projects Nebraska by 6.2 (65% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Nebraska lead 6-5 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →