NC State vs Stanford
NC State visit Stanford in Week 8. The model favors NC State by 7.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market read this game the same way. SP+ puts NC State at -1 (rank 78) against Stanford at -11.2 (rank 116), a 10.2-point separation that drives a projected NC State margin of 7.8. The consensus line of Stanford +6.5 sits just inside that figure, and the two win-probability sets barely diverge: the model gives NC State 68 percent to the market-implied 65 percent. There is no edge to exploit in direction, only a modest gap between the 7.8-point projection and the 6.5-point price.
The unit ranks favor NC State on both sides, though not overwhelmingly: offense #51 to Stanford's #106, defense #104 to #111. Results fit the ratings. NC State is uneven, with a 73-0 win over Richmond and a 31-28 win over Louisville offset by losses to Virginia (8-34) and Wake Forest (14-38). Stanford has been blown out repeatedly, falling 3-57 at Wake Forest, 7-58 at Notre Dame, and 6-45 to Miami, with wins confined to Hawai'i, Georgia Tech, and Elon.
The series is thin: NC State leads 1-0, winning the 2024 meeting 59-28. Season projections echo the tiers, with NC State at six wins and Stanford at 4.2, and neither carries meaningful Playoff odds. The total sits at 55.5.
Model and market both land on NC State near two-thirds, and the ratings gap backs a mid-single-digit road favorite.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as NC State's win price; Stanford's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line NC State is favored, below it Stanford is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the NC State vs Stanford game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the NC State vs Stanford market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do NC State and Stanford play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at Stanford.
Who is favored?
The model projects NC State by 7.5 (68% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
NC State lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →