Navy vs UAB
Navy visit UAB in Week 4. The model favors Navy by 12.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Navy at -2.3 (76th) against UAB at -17 (123rd), a gap that yields a 77% Navy win probability and a projected margin of 12.3 points. The consensus market is more cautious, pricing UAB at +7 with a total of 51.5 and implying Navy at 66%. The ProphetX exchange splits the difference, offering Navy -250 for a 71% implied edge. Every layer favors Navy, but the model sees more daylight than either price does, leaving Navy contracts the side where the disagreement points.
The unit ranks reinforce the ratings gap: Navy's offense (66th) and defense (89th) each sit well ahead of UAB's offense (113th) and defense (128th). Series history is one-sided, with Navy holding a 3-0 mark and taking the 2025 meeting 38-24. Form is mixed on both sides. Navy opened 42-15 over Towson before falling 30-38 at Florida Atlantic, while UAB is 1-2 with a 26-20 win over UL Monroe around losses at Illinois (23-42) and Louisiana (14-21).
Season simulations frame the tiers cleanly: Navy projects to 6.2 wins with a 1% Playoff chance, UAB to 4.3 wins with 0%. Neither carries title equity.
Model, market, exchange and series all lean Navy, and the 77% projection sits above both prices, tilting value toward the road side.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Navy's win price; UAB's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Navy is favored, below it UAB is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Navy vs UAB game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Navy vs UAB market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Navy and UAB play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 25, 2026 at UAB.
Who is favored?
The model projects Navy by 12.3 (77% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Navy lead 3-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →