Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State
Middle Tennessee visit Jacksonville State in Week 4. The model favors Jacksonville State by 18.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ and the market disagree sharply on magnitude here. The model rates Jacksonville State at -3.2 (rank 83) against Middle Tennessee at -18.9 (rank 126), a 15.7-point ratings gap that translates to a projected 18.1-point margin and an 86% win probability. The consensus line of Jacksonville State -7 implies just 66%, and the ProphetX exchange sits between at 73% (JSU -270). That is a wide spread between model and price: the market is treating this as a touchdown game while SP+ sees closer to three scores.
The unit ranks explain the model's confidence. Jacksonville State grades out ahead on both sides, offense #65 to Middle Tennessee's #121 and defense #92 to #129. Season results muddy the picture: Jacksonville State is 2-2 with a 7-33 loss at North Dakota State and a one-point loss at Ohio, while Middle Tennessee is 2-1 with a 28-26 defeat at Marshall the only blemish. The series favors the home side 3-0, though the 2025 meeting went 24-21.
Projections point the same way over the full slate: Jacksonville State at 7.4 wins and 1.6% Playoff odds, Middle Tennessee at 5.2 wins and 0%. The tension is entirely about spread size, where SP+ is far more bullish on Jacksonville State than either book or the exchange.
SP+ sees Jacksonville State by three scores at 86%; the market prices a touchdown at 66-73%, leaving a wide model-to-price gap.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Middle Tennessee's win price; Jacksonville State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Middle Tennessee is favored, below it Jacksonville State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Jacksonville State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Jacksonville State by 18.1 (86% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Jacksonville State lead 3-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →