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Matchup preview

Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts

Miami (OH) visit Massachusetts in Week 6. The model favors Miami (OH) by 4.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
61%
39%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

The read
Model analysis · October 7 · refreshed weekly

SP+ splits this one nearly in half: Miami (OH) rates -4.3 (88th) against Massachusetts at -6.2 (93rd), close enough that the model projects Massachusetts by 0.5 points and a 51% win probability. The market disagrees on direction, pricing Massachusetts at +2.5 with a 56% implied edge for Miami (OH). That gap, 51% model versus 44% market on the home side, is the central tension here.

The ratings lean on contrasting builds. Massachusetts pairs the 82nd defense with the 101st offense, while Miami (OH) brings the 86th offense and 91st defense. Series history favors the visitor, Miami (OH) holding a 4-0 edge, including a 23-20 win in the 2024 meeting. Results add nuance: Massachusetts opened 4-0, with a 37-21 win at Rutgers and 35-6 at Sacramento State, before a 14-38 loss to Eastern Michigan. Miami (OH) sits at 2-3, beating Holy Cross 45-7 and UConn 24-21 between a 14-59 loss at Pittsburgh and a 20-24 defeat to Bowling Green.

The season simulations frame the stakes: Massachusetts projects to 8.3 wins, Miami (OH) to 6.6, with neither above 0.6% to reach the Playoff and 0% to win the title.

A coin flip to the model, a slight Miami (OH) lean to the market: the 0.5-point projection and 0-4 series history point to a close, low-confidence game.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
M-OH -6
Total (O/U)
44.5
Favorite
M-OH
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#92SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#113
#89FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#136
1400EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.718
0.7%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Miami (OH)Massachusettssolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Miami (OH) lead 4-0
Miami (OH) have won the last 4
20142024
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2024
23-20
Miami (OH)
at Miami (OH)
2023
41-28
Miami (OH)
at Massachusetts
2015
20-13
Miami (OH)
at Massachusetts
2014
42-41
Miami (OH)
at Miami (OH)
More Week 6 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Miami (OH) and Massachusetts play?

Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Massachusetts.

Who is favored?

The model projects Miami (OH) by 4.5 (61% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Miami (OH) lead 4-0 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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